SO this is it, according to the Mayans the world ends today, hmm hope you've all had one last wave.
Although personally I'm reasonably confident that the predictions of a long extinct culture that also placed great stock in human sacrifice will not be stopping me from surfing tomorrow.
But I digress. Let's talk swell, or to be more specific cyclone swell.
We've been on a steady diet of easterly swell for well over a week now. As we get closer to Christmas the whispers have started already, could Evan be our first cyclone swell for the season?
Well, I suspect we may already be feeling the effects of Evan now in the form of long range, long period and small easterly swell.
This swell, is coming from somewhere, my guess, it's the leftovers of Cyclone Evan. It's quite small as it has travelled a great distance. But it has a period of 12-14 seconds and by that definition it does have some punch. The big question is will Evan hit us for Christmas?
The system is currently rising in pressure and by Monday or Tuesday it should reach the Tasman Sea heavily downgraded to a tropical low.
From there it is anyone's guess whether it re intensifies or not. My money is on not.
I believe Evan will fade into insignificance and just produce a nice 1-2m easterly swell as it drifts past.
This is the preferred option. If it does re-intensify off the East Coast it will probably trash our banks.
We all remember how much sand we lost with the Christmas swell last year; our sandbanks didn't really recover until May.
So I'm hoping Evan continues to abate as it tracks south west into the Tasman.
This coming weekend should see a steady easterly swell in the 1-2m range. The swell is not forecast to increase. But the period of the swell could increase on Sunday.
This would produce heavier and thicker waves if it happens. This swell may hold on until Christmas and Boxing Day.
The weekend will unfortunately see onshore winds from the east southeast swinging east northeast.
Bottom line, there will only be a few spots out of the wind, and they will be crowded, so plan for lumpy waves if you want to avoid the crowds. The Christmas break is still up in the air regarding winds.
Ben 'Bear' Bennink is a former professional longboarder and retired NSSIA master coach. He writes for Pacific Longboarder Magazine and is semi-retired in Byron Bay where he is editor of inbyronbaytoday.com.
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