Weather guru tips cyclones and big rain
LATE-season cyclones and early rain are long-range forecaster Ken Ring's prediction for south-east Queensland this wet season.
The Kiwi weather guru expects a couple of low pressure systems to threaten by the end of next month, but they will bring more rain than wind and quickly disperse.
The real trouble, if any eventuates, is expected to come late in the season.
The author of Ken Ring's Australian Weather Almanac 2014 which will be in stores soon, said Queensland could face its first true cyclonic system in early April.
It which will develop around the Solomon Islands before setting a likely course clear of Queensland in a south-easterly direction towards New Zealand's northern tip.
"However, given the notorious nature of cyclonic systems movements, this system will be closely watched and precautions are likely to be under taken,'' he said.
Mid-May also may see another low-pressure system form in the Coral Sea and intensify as it moves down the Queensland coast.
Again, Mr Ring predicts that while extreme rainfall should be expected, winds would not be cyclone force.
It's been a dry few months but that is expected to be drawing to a close with a wet back half of November and above-average December rainfalls.
Mr Ring predicts a wet Christmas period, with some rain each week of the month and total falls of 125-130mm - 6% above the average 110mm for the month.
Localised flooding may be a problem in the final week of November and into the first few days of December in Gympie, Wide Bay-Burnett and Toowoomba.
He said heavy falls could be expected for a few days about November 26 with the passage of a thundery front. A further large amount of rain is possible about December 3.
Activity later in the month will pose a risk of flooding for Brisbane and Kingaroy just before Christmas, about December 22.
In the final week of December, another monsoonal trough is likely through inland Queensland which will carry little rain for the south-east corner
Into the New Year, a tropical low over the Gulf of Carpentaria will attempt to become cyclonic about January 15, but it is not expected to eventuate into anything significant.
It will be quickly followed about January 18-21 by another low forming off the Cape York Peninsula which is expected to result in very heavy rain as it comes down the Queensland coast.
But Mr Ring again does not expect anything more than a tropical low or weak-grade cyclonic system for a day or so.
The full-moon period from January 13 to 20 will see some flooding in south-east Queensland but this will more likely be the result of another deep dip in the monsoonal trough through inland parts of the state crossing from the Northern Territory to south-east Queensland and out into the lower Tasman Sea.
February's most intense tropical low with cyclonic potential is anticipated from the 24th-27th, forming in the Coral Sea and brushing the state's south-east coastal regions.